Fuel For Thought

Part suppliers have their hands full these days. After surviving more than two months of virtually no vehicle output earlier this spring – production in North America has been on a tear. Total North American output should reach 13 million light vehicles – a remarkable achievement. Consumers have re-engaged into the market - now finding that inventory of several popular vehicles to be slimmer than expected. One group feeling the pressure are parts suppliers - dealing with increasing COVID restrictions in many regions are thus having difficulties finding qualified labor to keep up with demand. Absenteeism and employee turnover are at heightened levels. These issues are not just in North America. Low inventories of microchips and semi-conductors from various locations in Asia are causing concern throughout the global industry. Just when the industry should be enjoying a volume revival – there is no rest for the weary. This has been Michael Robinet with an IHS Markit minute.

Electric vehicle production and platform announcements continue to pepper the landscape. EV development has been underway in earnest, and we are at the edges of an explosion in production as a result. IHS Markit forecasts EV global production could rise to 15% of total light-vehicle production in 2027, bringing a wave of new products. With this next phase of EV maturation, development has been focused on vehicles that consumers want. At the same time, publicly available charging and infrastructure networks are improving. The combination of products aligned with consumer uses and demand, more choice and better infrastructure are essential to consumer adoption. However, over the first three quarters of 2020, electric vehicle registrations accounted for only 1.58% of the US light-vehicle market, while the industry is ramping up to support a much higher share of market. Though growth in the coming years will be strong, we may also see near-term production increase faster than consumer demand. I'm Stephanie Brinley and this has been an IHS Markit Minute.

Kristen Balasia, Peter Nagle and Mark Fulthorpe talk about automotive 2021 outlook, diving into the positive influences and uncertainties, and what we can expect in 2021.

As the automotive industry looks to recover lost revenues from the global COVID-19 pandemic, the growing demand for high-tech, shared mobility solutions has become a focal point. Within major markets, IHS Markit forecasts a steady 18 percent compound annual growth rate on vehicle sales for mobility services use in the next 10 years, adding 2.6 million units by 2030. In contrast, vehicle sales for personal-use will see a net loss of 1 million units in the same timeframe. To take advantage of the shifting consumer demand, many automakers are partnering with ride-hailing companies to design and optimize a new type of vehicle for their services. Recently, Chinese carmaker, BYD launched the D1 to exclusively support DiDi's ride-hailing operations in China, earning revenues based on vehicle usage, rather than unit sales. And BYD is not alone. Several other OEMs have launched similar endeavors, proving that the pandemic has forced OEMs to think differently about how vehicles are designed AND how revenues are earned. I'm Mark Boyadjis, with an IHS Markit Minute.

Kristen Balasia, Mike Wall and Sandra Zhou talk about China; the auto industry gets a lift from Chinese consumers and regulators driving growth even as a surge in COVID-19 cases in the US and Europe tempers demand elsewhere.

Investment in electric vehicle manufacturing has been in the news lately, with announcements from General Motors, Ford and FCA, as well as Volkswagen's introduction of the ID.4 which will see production in the US. Daimler, BMW and Honda are also expected to add US EV production by the end of the decade. In 2026, IHS Markit forecasts that about 10% of US light-vehicle production will be electric vehicles, compared with just under 4% in 2019. With expectations for a Democratic president in the White House in January, vehicle emissions regulations may shift to more aggressive targets. Though the government has regulatory and incentive levers which could speed consumer adoption, the trajectory toward EVs is already set, relative to most automaker strategy and long-term investment plans. The increased manufacturing is bringing more models to market, delivering more consumer choice. Increased choice and availability will be as critical to increasing consumer adoption as incentives or regulations. I'm Stephanie Brinley and this has been an IHS Markit Minute.

There is a clear focus on new revenue sources in the automotive industry, as mobility, electrification, autonomy, and connectivity continue to democratize for a post-COVID world. Connected services are one way automakers can grow revenues, yet many still see it as a cost, not a profit center. In many cases, automakers see paltry renewal rates from 15-30% post trial, which is neither sustainable nor profitable. In a recent IHS Markit study, six premium brands in the US market were evaluated and indexed, investigating the intersection of consumer opinions and competitive metrics on connected features. Tesla and Cadillac indexed above the average, whereas BMW, Audi, Mercedes and Genesis indexed below. These results illustrate that the top two brands have a deeper integration of connected services across their organizations that drive higher customer satisfaction and revenues. As the industry works to recover the sales and revenue levels it enjoyed before the pandemic, those with a structural focus on connected services will find a competitive advantage amongst the market. I'm Mark Boyadjis, with an IHS Markit Minute.

October is National Cybersecurity Awareness Month! Connected cars provide ample motivation to implement cybersecurity measures. But the expansion of automated driving gives further reason for safeguarding the vehicle. IHS Markit forecasts that more than half of all new vehicle sales globally in 2022 will have some automated vehicle control feature. In recognition of these growing risks, automakers are responding with best practices in cybersecurity, and regulators across regions are taking action as well. Japan will be first to adopt new cybersecurity requirements for all new vehicles sold after January 2021. The European Union will do the same in July 2022, alongside the adoption of new requirements for active safety and automated driving. We estimate that solutions to manage cybersecurity threats will produce annual revenues of more than 400 million US dollars globally in 2022. I'm Jeremy Carlson with an IHS Markit Minute.

A Closer Look at One SUV Category The sub-compact SUV category is one of the smaller SUV segments, based on market share, but it has contributed to the remarkable success of SUVs in general. Sub-compact SUVs' share of the U.S. market has grown from 3.4% at the start of 2016 to 4.6% now, and while this may not seem like much, it's a 34 percent increase – which ranks second among all mainstream SUV segments. Also, sub-compact SUVs continue to act as a "feeder" segment to both compact and midsize SUV categories, with 24% and 8% of consumers moving up to these two segments, respectively. In fact, households with a sub-compact SUV in their garage move up to a compact SUV more often than they move to any segment other than their own. Lastly, households with a sub-compact SUV in the garage are exceptionally brand loyal; their brand loyalty of 55% in the first seven months of 2020 is higher than overall industry-wide brand loyalty and second among all mainstream SUV categories. I'm Tom Libby with an IHS Markit Minute.

Melanie Erff, Mike Wall and Tanja Linken talk about how the COVID-19 pandemic has impacted the global automotive retail with respect to challenges faced by dealerships and customers' expectation in their purchase process and future interactions.